TOUR DE SKI. The Final Climb up Alpe Cermis is the toughest race in the Cross Country Skiing World Cup – this is the stage where legends are made and the Tour de Ski is decided. For Stage 9 you are to set up predictions for the Alpe Cermis stage only - the overall Tour de Ski predictions were set up already ahead of the Tour start.
 
Norwegian skier Therese Johaug’s climb in 2011 is the most legendary race up Alpe Cermis so far – beating Marte Elden (NOR) in second spot with more than a minute and Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) with nearly two minutes. Lukas Bauer (CZE) is the King of Alpe Cermis being fastest up two times. Most impressive was the legendary 2010 edition where Bauer started the stage 10 seconds behind Petter Northug (NOR) and crushed Northug up the Final Climb – winning the overall Tour de Ski with 1:16 down to Northug AND in addition winning the Alpe Cermis stage.
 
Some facts about the Alpe Cermis stage:
- Height difference of 425 meters
- Total climb 495 meters
- Final stage in Tour de Ski since the first edition in 2007
- The toughest race in the Cross Country Skiing World Cup
 - Length of the race 9.000 meters (since 2011)
- Same course for men and women (since 2011). The first part of the course has changed over the years
- Therese Johaug (NOR) is the Queen of Alpe Cermis with her fantastic 2011 race
 
2012 preview: Men
 
Lukas Bauer, Ivan Babikov (CAN) and Giorgio Di Centa (ITA) are the three skiers in this year’s start field who always perform well up Alpe Cermis. But with such a tough race profile , motivation and position in the field is often just as important as pure strength. Dario Cologna (SUI), Alexander Legkov (RUS) and Marcus Hellner (SWE) have all shown that they can perform on par with the stage winner if it is necessary in order to fight for the victory. Petter Northug has come closer and closer to the stage winner each year  - down to +39 seconds in 2011. If the fast Norwegian continues his improvements, he should be able to fight for the stage win this year.
 
In the overall, Cologna has a lead of 1:22 down to Petter Northug with Hellner and Kershaw at 2:06. Lukas Bauer is in 5th at 3:35. Based on the previous races up Alpe Cermis, this should be an easy job for Cologna. The race for 2nd spot can get a tight fight between Northug, Hellner and Kershaw, though.
 
2012 preview: Women
 
In the womens class, Therese Johaug is the big favourite for the stage win after crushing the field last year and also winning in 2009. The other big names for the last stage are Kristin Størmer Steira (NOR) who won the stage in 2010 and Valentina Shevchenko (UKR) who took the Alpe Cermis stage win in 2008.  Riitta-Liisa Roponen (FIN) was only 3 seconds behind Steira in 2010 and should also be counted among the outsiders for the stage win. And don’t forget Marthe Kristoffersen (NOR) – third last year, and in better shape this year.
 
Taking a look at the fight between the two fighting for the overall victory – Marit Bjørgen (NOR) and Justyna Kowalczyk (POL), Kowalczyk seems to be stronger, but Bjørgen has yet to race the stage in 100% top shape. Last year Johaug took nearly 2 minutes on Justyna Kowalczyk, but Kowalczyk skied at the front of the field without pressure, and her race up Alpe Cermis was therefore more like “a walk in the park” than the toughest race of the year. In 2010 Kowalczyk was only 25 seconds behind the stage winner Kristin Størmer Steira, and thus Kowalczyk has shown that she can perform very well if needed. Marit Bjørgen  has only raced the Alpe Cermis stage twice – in 2007 when she lost 1:20 to the stage winner and in 2009 when she lost nearly 4 minutes after a full break-down. However, Bjørgen should be able to fight on equal terms with Kowalczyk – this is going to be very interesting!

FIScrosscountry.com
Saturday 7 January 2012

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